Climate Changes in the Agricultural Sector of Developing Countries: Mitigation, Adaptation and Decision Making
 

Walter E. Baethgen
Latin America Regional Program
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Columbia University, New York
baethgen@iri.columbia.edu

 
 
Abstract

The warming of the climate system is undeniable and evident from observations of increases in global air and ocean temperatures, as well as in melting of snow and ice, and rising global sea levels. Measures are needed to reverse the current trend of increased accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. The two main paths to reverse this trend are: (a) reducing GHG emissions through cleaner energy generation, and (b) removing CO 2 through carbon “sinks” or carbon sequestration. The agricultural and forestry sectors can play a key role in both paths. Carbon markets are being developed worldwide and will likely encourage actions in the agricultural sector that will lead to increased amounts of sequestered carbon and reduced emissions of GHG. However, the implementation of carbon-market oriented projects for small farmers in least developed countries still remains a major challenge.

Even under the most optimistic scenarios, adaptation is necessary to address the impacts of warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. Incorporating the issue of climate change into decision-making is complicated by the uncertainty levels associated with climate change scenarios. This incorporation is also challenged by a frequent “double conflict of scales”: (a) the temporal scales of climate change scenarios are frequently much farther in the future than the ones needed for decision-making, and (b) the spatial scales of the climate scenarios (e.g., regional up to global) are much coarser than the ones often needed for actual decision-making (i.e., local level).

Introducing the issue of “climate change” into the policy and development agendas can be facilitated by considering the longer-term variations as part of the continuum of the total climate variability (seasons to decades to centuries), and generate information at the temporal scale that is relevant and applicable for particular time frames or planning horizons of the different decisions. This approach introduces “climate change” as a problem of the present as opposed to a problem of the future.

Incorporation of climate change in the planning agendas requires the engagement of stakeholders from the beginning of the research and development activities. Stakeholder engagement is also facilitated by developing “discussion-support tools” and by establishing participatory pilot studies.
 
Keywords: Stakeholders; Development agendas; Decision-making; Simulation models; Policy agendas.
 
 
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